Ninnies

http://news.discovery.com/tech/modern-warfare-insurgent-attacks-prediction.html

It is always hazardous to comment on serious scholarship as it's presented in the popular press, (I've learned time and again how such reportage twists and perverts the actual subject matter). But if this article is true, it sounds like a near-worthless waste of time to me. The idea that all conflicts follow some sort of universal time/violence line is prepsoterous. The conclusion that a couple of guys with guns on each side is the same as a couple million guys with guns on each side is preposterous. And their claims of predictabily have so many caveats and disclaimers that it sounds like an amateur playing at being a military intelligence officer. They admit it provicdes no help to tactical thinking, and if your ead it carefully it doesn't sound like it's even competitive with a good intelligence and reconaissance effort. If you believe that the battle of Verdun was run the same way as the Tupamaro campaign in Montevideo which was the same as the Battle of Tora Bora which was the same as the Destruction of Army Group Center, then you are welcome to your graphs and charts. I remain unimpressed.